Repeating Enron in Jaitapur

June 21, 2013

Updated: June 21, 2013 00:15 IST

Suvrat Raju

 

The tariff of Rs. 4 per unit of electricity is unrealistic unless the government subsidises the cost of the first two Areva reactors by Rs. 22,000 crore

More than a decade after Enron’s collapse, its legacy continues to haunt Maharashtra. In 2006, the Dabhol power project was restructured into the Ratnagiri power project with public subsidies that, by some estimates, amounted to Rs. 10,000 crore. The project has led a troubled existence and in March this year it announced that it may have to stop servicing its outstanding debt of Rs. 9,000 crore because of a problem with its fuel supply. In spite of this reminder of the continuing long-term costs of sweetheart deals to attract foreign investment in the power sector, a team from the Indian atomic energy establishment left for France last week to repeat the same mistakes.

Problem with design

The French company Areva, just like Enron, has been promised a contract for six European Pressurized Reactors (EPRs) by executive fiat, bypassing a competitive bidding process. The reactors will be set up in Jaitapur, which is also in Ratnagiri. No one knows the exact extent of this give-way, because no EPR has been commissioned anywhere in the world. Areva started construction on its first EPR in Finland in 2005, with a promise to complete the reactor by 2009, at a price of just over €3 billion. After eight years, the reactor is still incomplete but cost estimates have ballooned to €8.5 billion —almost thrice the original figure. Areva has various excuses, but similar delays and cost increases in the second EPR under construction in its own country point to a more fundamental problem with the EPR design.

There is little public data about the EPRs being built in China, but these prices are consistent with those proposed for EPRs in Britain and indicate that each Indian reactor may cost as much as Rs. 60,000 crore. So, the price of the two reactors that the government hopes to commence in the Twelfth Plan period will equal the total plan outlay on science and technology including the departments of Space, Science and Technology, Biotechnology, and research labs throughout the country.

What does this imply for consumers? In 2010, the then CEO of Areva, Anne Lauvergeon, told this newspaper that the tariff would be “below the Rs. 4 figure.” More recently, Areva suggested that this “tariff holds true,” except for small escalations because of the delay in operationalising the project.

Both Areva and the Nuclear Power Corporation of India (NPCIL) have doggedly refused to explain the origins of this number. In the same 2010 interview, Lauvergeon said that “I am not going to give you the details … it is not for me to give the price if the customer does not want to give it.” The government has also refused to divulge information in meetings with local activists or even in response to parliamentary questions, where it has fallen back on the story that the final price is still under negotiation.

However, it is possible to independently estimate the cost of electricity using a study on the economics of imported reactors that the government produced in preparation for the India-U.S. nuclear deal. This was later updated and published by NPCIL.

When M.V. Ramana and I applied this framework to the Jaitapur reactors, in a paper for the Economic and Political Weekly, we concluded that the true cost of electricity is likely to be almost four times as high as what the government claims. The figure of Rs. 4 per unit comes from a combination of unrealistic assumptions and a revenue model that provides massive public subsidies to the project.

The single most important factor in determining the tariff is the capital cost of the reactor. The government claims that the Indian EPRs will be cheaper because construction forms “about 40 per cent of the total cost.” Estimates suggest that construction costs in India are about 60 per cent lower than Europe. So, under best case conditions, the government could hope for about a 25 per cent reduction in the total cost.

However, the capital cost assumed in the government’s study is not 25 per cent lower, but literally 25 per cent of the figure for European reactors! It is this assumption of an unrealistic capital cost that underpins the Rs. 4 figure.

The study also reveals how the government plans to set out an exceedingly generous revenue model for the project. For example, it assumes that the project will have access to long-term debt at an interest rate of only 6 per cent. This is inconsistent with the serious concerns about the project’s viability. Moreover, since the yield on 10-year Indian Government bonds has been consistently higher than 7 per cent, even the full backing of the government will not bring the rate down to this level in the open market. So, the government will have to arm-twist public sector banks or itself provide a long-term loan to the project at this throwaway rate.

Another subsidy is built into the government’s plan to inject equity during the first few years of construction. In the government’s revenue model, this money will sit idle for more than a decade until the reactor becomes operational. Assuming, optimistically, that the EPRs are constructed as fast as the Kudankulam reactors, this delay will bring the government’s return on equity down from the advertised rate of 14 per cent to an effective rate of only 7.7 per cent. Further delays, which are likely, will reduce this further.

When these parameters are corrected, and combined with a realistic estimate of the cost of fuel, the government’s own methodology leads to a first year tariff of Rs.15 per unit, even without including transmission and distribution costs. Obviously, this cannot be passed on to consumers, and so the state will have to subsidise the electricity. To bring the tariff down to Rs. 4 will require a subsidy of Rs. 22,000 crore each year for the first two reactors. This “Areva-subsidy” is a quarter of India’s entire food subsidy bill.

There are other serious questions about the project. For example, Areva’s reluctance to accept even a small amount of liability is in sharp contrast to its unscientific claims that it has precisely computed the probability of a serious accident in an EPR, and found it to be once in 1.6 million years.

But the economics of this project are so appalling that it is possible to separate these issues and even the broader question of the role of nuclear energy in India. Even the nuclear establishment accepts, as WikiLeaks revealed, that the “NPCIL [has] paid a ‘high’ price”. The justification for the project cannot be Maharashtra’s electricity shortage either since at this price it is possible to find several alternative solutions to that problem.

Jairam Ramesh admitted that for the government, the “venture is significant not just from an energy generation but also from a strategic point of view.” Anil Kakodkar, former chairperson of the Indian Atomic Energy Commission, explained that India had to “nurture” French “business interests” because France helped India when it wanted access to international nuclear markets.

Back-room deal

This is an admission of an unsavoury back-room deal. However, a moment’s reflection also brings out the circularity of this argument. France supported India’s efforts because it wanted to sell reactors to India. Why should the country return this self-centred help by paying through its nose?

There is a simple but significant political aspect to this entire issue. It is clear that this deal and the concomitant negotiations to purchase reactors from American companies are being driven by pressure from the Prime Minister’s Office. The reason that negotiations with Areva have taken on an urgent note is because the government’s prospects in the next elections are uncertain. If the next dispensation does not have the same ideological commitment to imported nuclear reactors, these deals may flounder.

Our system concentrates enormous financial powers in the hands of the executive. However, just because the government has the power does not mean that it has the right to rush into a deal that could bleed the country for years to come.

(The author (suvrat.raju@gmail.com) is a physicist associated with the Coalition for Nuclear Disarmament and Peace. The views expressed are personal)

Halt Flamanville EPR work, says nuclear watchdog

December 18, 2013

Vaiju Naravane

 

Environmentalists criticised reactor as being too expensive and an impossible and dangerous dream

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India is negotiating unit cost of power for two EPR reactors to be built at Jaitapur

The work has been halted several times following conformity warnings

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Work under way at the third-generationEuropean Pressurised Reactor in Flamanville, France.— File Photo: Reuters

The controversial French EPR at the Flamanville plant in France has once again run into trouble, with the French nuclear watchdog the Nuclear Safety Authority (Agence de surete nucleaire) calling for a halt in work, according to reports appearing in the French press.

EDF, the French engineer-operator of the plant, has admitted that it has received a warning from the French Ministry of Labour but rejected reports that said construction had been forcibly halted.

The gigantic reactor capable of producing 1650 megawatts of power has had teething problems ever since work first began almost eight years ago. Initially expected to go on stream in 2012, the reactor is now slated to become operational in 2016 with a corresponding rise in cost – from an initial € 3.3 billion to an estimated € 9 billion. Not a single EPR (European Pressurised Reactor) is currently operating. The plant in Olkiouoto in Finland, delayed by several years has yet to be commissioned and the Finnish operator TVO is locked in a bitter arbitration battle to the tune of € 2.7 billion with French nuclear giant Areva, the designer of the troubled reactor.

Escalating cost

India is currently negotiating the unit cost of power for two EPRs to be built at Jaitapur in Maharashtra. The cost of the reactor has jumped from an estimated € 3.3 billion in 2007 to over € 8 billion now. It is likely to cross € 9 billion next year. Environmentalists have criticised the reactor as being too expensive, too gigantic and an impossible and dangerous dream. But French authorities have pegged ahead with the controversial project, work on which has been halted several times following conformity warnings from the French nuclear watchdog and accidents including on-site deaths.

“There is real danger at the heart of the EPR in Flamanville [northern France] which EDF has chosen to ignore, failing to respond to the many summations issued by the Agency . Finally, on 13 December, the Ministry of Works and Labour officially warned the engineer operator to take all necessary steps to remedy a situation dangerous for worker safety. Which means of course that delays and costs will rise even further for this gigantic project,” the influential French website Mediapart reported.

An EDF spokesman confirmed that the Agency had pointed to over 15 cases of non-conformity in a machine at the heart of the reactor under construction.

“We have issued a provisional report and are going to issue a final report on the remedial action taken,” the spokesman said. Earlier, the ASN had halted work when cracks appeared in the reactor’s central dome because of faulty cladding and cementing.

Environmental specialists have questioned India’s decision to firstly purchase the mega reactors and secondly locate them in Jaitapur, considered to lie in a seismic zone. Areva, the reactor’s designer says the reactor has a double dome that ensures absolute safety.

Copyright© 2013, The Hindu

எல்லா கிரகங்களும் சேர்ந்து தீப்பந்தாக மாறும் பிரபஞ்சம் அழிவு ஆரம்பமாகி விட்டதாம்

03:04:04

Wednesday

2013-12-18

லண்டன்: இந்த பூமி உட்பட சூரியன், சந்திரன்  என்று எல்லா கிரகங்களையும் உள்ளடக்கிய பிரபஞ்சத்தின் அழிவு, ஏதோ ஒரு கிரகத்தில் ஆரம்பமாகி விட்டது. இந்த அழிவின் இறுதியில் பிரபஞ்சம், இப்போதுள்ள அளவை விட, சிறியதாக, ஆனால், பொசுக்கும் தீப்பந்தாக உருமாறி விடும். தெற்கு டென்மார்க் பல்கலைக்கழக இயற்பியல் விஞ்ஞானிகள் இப்படி ஒரு புது பீதியை கிளப்பியுள்ளனர்.   அச்சப்படுத்தும் அந்த ஆய்வு முடிவுகள்: உலகம் உட்பட இந்த பிரபஞ்சம் அழியப்போகிறது என்று முன்னதாகவே ஆய்வுகள் தெரிவிக்கின்றன. ஆனால், நாங்கள் கண்டுபிடித்த ஆய்வு முடிவுகளின் படி, பிரபஞ்சம் எப்படி அழியப்போகிறது.அதன் பின் அதன் நிலை என்ன என்று தெரியவந்துள்ளது. பல கிரகங்களும் ஒன்றோடு ஒன்று  மோதி நொறுங்கி, உருத்தெரியாமல் ஆகி விடும். சூரியன், சந்திரன், செவ்வாய், புதன் என்று கிரகங்களும், நட்சத்திர கூட்டங்களும் கூட  எல்லாம் ஒன்று சேர் ந்து விடும்.  அதுபோல, இந்த பூமியில் மண், கற்கள் என்று கனிமங்கள் முதல் எல்லாம் உருத்தெரியாமல் ஆகி விடும். பூமியே வேறு உருவத்துக்கு போய்விடும். மொத்தத்தில் எல்லா சக்திகளும், தன்மைகளும் மாறி ஒரு முழு தீப்பந்து போல ஒரே கிரகமாக மாறி விடும் இந்த பிரபஞ்சம்.
இப்படி உருமாறுவதால் அதன் வெப்பசக்தி பல கோடி மடங்கு அதிகரிக்கும். அப்படி ஆகும் போது, இந்த பிரபஞ்சமே ஒரு ராட்சத தீப்பந்து போலாகி விடும். மிகவும் கோரமான இந்த உருமாற்றங்கள் தான்  பிரபஞ்சத்தின் அடுத்த கட்டம் என்று மதிப்பிடப்படுகிறது. அது எப்படியிருக்கும். பூமி போலவே வேறு கிரகம் இயங்கும். அங்கு மனிதர்கள் போல உயிரினங்கள் உருவாகும். இந்த பிரபஞ்சம் சிறு துகள் பல கோடி அணுத்துகளாக வெடித்து சிதறி அணுவை பிளந்து அணு உருவானது போல உருவானது தான். இப்படி சொன்ன  ஹிக்ஸ் ஆய்வு போல,  துகள்கள் எல்லாம் வெளிப்பட ஆரம்பிக்கும். பிரபஞ்சம் அழிவது, எங்கே, அது பூமியாகவும் இருக்கலாம், வேறு கிரகமாகவும் இருக்கலாம், அங்கு அழிவு ஆரம்பமாகி  விட்டது. ஒரு நீர்க்குமிழி போல  ஆரம்பமாகி விட்டது என்பதே உண்மை என ஆய்வில் தெரியவந்துள்ளது.  அது சரி, எப்போது பிரபஞ்சம் முழுமையாக அழிந்து தீப்பந்தாகும் என்று தெரியுமா? 100 கோடி ஆண்டுகளுக்கு பின். அப்பாடா, நாம் கவலைப்பட வேண்டாம் தானே.

http://www.dinakaran.com/News_Detail.asp?Nid=72265

Mars Orbiter spent 55% of the total fuel so far: ISRO scientist

 

Avinash Nair : Ahmedabad, Wed Dec 18 2013, 22:14 hrs ISRO's Mars orbiter has so far burnt about 55 per cent of the 850 kilograms of fuel it is carrying.

 

Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO's) Mars Orbiter, which is currently at a distance of 60 lakh kilometers from Earth, has so far burnt about 55 per cent of the 850 kilograms of fuel it is carrying.

"We have already spent 470 kilogram of the bio-propellant we are carrying. However, we have not overspent,despite the glitch that we encountered during the fourth burn (while circling the earth. We are well within the nominal limit of spending," said AS Kiran Kumar, a senior scientist working on the Mars Orbiter Mission (MOM) and the director of city-based Space Application Centre (SAC), an arm of ISRO.

Instead of the scheduled five burns, the orbiter had to conduct six earth burns before the Trans-Mars Injection phase.

"This is a mission where we are using the most minimal of energy possible. The next round of fuel will be burnt in the Trajectory Correction Maneuvers (TCM) that will be undertaken in the months of April and August 2014. About 200 kg of fuel will be burnt in a matter of 28 minutes on September 24, 2014, during the Mars Orbit Injection phase," said Kiran Kumar while talking about the mission on the sidelines of a talk on ISRO's Mars Mission organised at Ahmedabad Management Association on Wednesday evening.

The first TCM was carried out on December 11.

The senior ISRO scientist said that indigenously developed Ceramic Servo Accelerometer (CSA) that measures the precise amount of velocity the satellite gains when the thrusters are burnt have "enabled in preserving the fuel on-board." This CSA on the MOM is an improved version of the one deployed during the Chandrayaan Mission.

"About 190 kgs of fuel was spent on Tran-Mars Injection phase on December 1 which was perhaps the toughest part of the mission so far," said Kiran Kumar while addressing an audience at AMA.

The Mars orbiter which was launched on November 5 is at a distance of 60 lakh kilometers from Earth and is currently travelling at a speed of 3.4 kilometer per second through space. By the time the orbiter reaches Mars, it will attain a velocity of 34 kilometer per second.

"We are currently communicating with the satellite using the on-board medium gain antenna. Any message sent to it currently takes 12 seconds to reach. This gap will keep on increasing till the furthest point when a signal sent from Earth will take 20 minutes to travel one-way," said Kiran Kumar.

The Mars Orbiter is scheduled to scan the atmosphere of Mars for a period of six months and any shortage in fuel could shorten or jeopardise this mission.

Copyright © 2013 The Indian Express ltd

City docs plan 16-hr surgery to separate twins

Ekatha Ann John TNN Dec 14, 2013

Rare Case Of Boys Joined At Buttocks; Only Four Pairs In Medical History

Chennai: Doctors at a city hospital are preparing for a marathon surgery to separate nine-month-old twin boys from Tanzania, joined at the tail end of their spines.
    Ericana and Eluidi were born facing away from each other with separate heads, necks, shoulders, arms, hearts and lungs but they shared an anus, urinary passage and a penis — a rare condition that is known as ‘pygopagus twins’.
    The operation, scheduled to begin on December 16, is expected to last up to 16 hours. “Our goal is to create two functional children,” said Dr Venkat Sripathi, senior consultant paediatric urologist of Apollo Hospitals, who will be leading a team consisting of 20 specialists.
    According to medical literature, pygopagus twins account for 17% of the conjoined twin population throughout the world.
    Of the 30 sets of pygopagus twins reported across the world, 26 were female. While a few hospitals in India have successfully operated on female twins, no records exist on the separation of male twins.

  Nine-month-old Tanzanian twins Ericana and Eluidi will soon be able to look each other in the eye if doctors have their way. The conjoined twins are joined at the posterior and share an anus, urinary passage and a penis.
    Three months after they were born with a condition medical journals describe as ‘rare’, the twins’ 20-year-old mother boarded a flight from Tanzania to India, hoping she would return to her native village — a three-day drive from the capital of Dodoma — with her sons on either side of her.
    “The twins were admitted to a hospital in Tanzania for three months. After a lot of discussion, doctors told the mother the separation of the babies was fraught with risk. Health officials from the country sought our help and we decided to take up the case,” said Dr Venkat Sripathi, senior consultant and paediatric urologist of Apollo Hospitals.
    Doctors found that the babies were pygopagus twins — who account for 17% of all conjoined twins in the world — with the tail ends of their spines joined. “They have a single anus, urinary passage and rectum. Their penises are fused. It was unlike anything we had seen before,” said Dr Sripathi. When doctors at the hospital pored over similar cases across the world, they gauged the rarity of the condition — of the 30 sets of pygopagus twins reported across the world, 26 were female and only four were male.
    “In India, a few hospitals have successfully separated female pygopagus twins, but we found practically nothing on separating males. Separating males is a lot more challenging as in females the vagina and urinary passage are often separate,” said Dr Sripathi. The surgery, scheduled for December 16, will be performed at Apollo Hospitals’ Vanagaram branch.
    The surgery will take 14 to 16 hours and the team will comprise 20 senior specialists from neurosurgery, plastic surgery, paediatric surgery and paediatric urology. “The babies have undergone six procedures ahead of the sur gery. Over the last five months, we’ve also inserted tissue expanders in the back, buttocks and thighs so that skin flaps can be rotated to cover the large defects left after separation,” said plastic surgeon Dr Roshini Gopinathan at a press conference the hospital held ahead of the surgery.
    The surgery, which will be live streamed for doctors who are interested in the case, will involve separating the spine, anus, rectum, penis and urethra. “After the surgery is done, plastic surgeons will reconstruct the raw areas in both babies and work on them separately,” said Dr Sripathi, adding the risks were huge, but doctors were confident of undertaking the procedure.
    “The survival rate post surgery is around 80%. Post operative care is also critical. We’ve asked the parents to bring the babies back after six months for a follow-up and to do minor cosmetic work,” said Dr Sripathi. The surgery is expected to cost Rs 40 lakh or more and will be funded by the Tanzanian government.

http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Client.asp?Daily=TOICH&showST=true&login=default&pub=TOI&Enter=true&Skin=TOINEW

‘Non-stick cookware may lead to diabetes’

 

PTI | Dec 14, 2013, 07.17 AM IST

LONDON: Scientists have found a link between high levels of perfluorinated compounds — widely used in non-stick cookware — and diabetes. In a new study, a research team led by Uppsala University said perfluorinated compounds are environmental toxins and there is a link between their high levels in blood and diabetes.

The research group at Uppsala University has previously shown associations between high levels of environmental toxins, such as PCB, pesticides, and phthalates and diabetes. They have investigated whether elevated levels of another type of environmental toxin, so-called perfluorinated compounds, are related to diabetes. Perfluorinated compounds are used in a wide variety of industrial and consumer products, including fire fighting foam, non-stick cookware, and grease and water-repellent materials such as food contact material, ski wax and Gore-Tex , for example.

In a group of more than a thousand 70-year-old men and women, levels of seven different perfluorinated compounds were measured in the blood and related to whether the individuals had diabetes (114 persons) or not.

These seven perfluorinated compounds were detectable in virtually all individuals in the study.

Scientists find second code hiding in DNA

 

PTI | Dec 14, 2013, 07.19 AM IST

WASHINGTON: In a major find, researchers have discovered a second code hiding within DNA which has instructions on gene control.

The discovery may help change how scientists read the instructions contained in DNA and interpret mutations to make sense of health and disease.

Since the genetic code was deciphered in the 1960s, researchers have assumed that it was used exclusively to write information about proteins . University of Washington scientists were surprised to discover that genomes use the genetic code to write two separate languages.

One describes how proteins are made, and the other instructs the cell on how genes are controlled.

One language is written on top of the other, which is why the second language remained hidden for so long.